Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$153
$267
$281
$436
$440
Floor (10%)
$153
Typical
$267
Average (EV)
$281
Lucky (90%)
$436
Box price
$440
The average box ($281) is $14.00 above a typical box ($267) — 5%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
91%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
9%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $440
EV $281
Median $267
$0$121$242$363$483$604$725
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Double Masters 2022 collector boosterbox TCG low $440, expected value $281, median box $267, 9% break-even, −36% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box is $281 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $267.
What are the odds of breaking even on Double Masters 2022 collector boosters?
About 9% of simulated Double Masters 2022 collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($440). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Double Masters 2022 sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $281 vs sealed $440 (−36% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$13.77 (5.2%) · Box +$70.02 (18.9%) over 3m · ROI −8.4%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$440
Standalone pack listing
$110
Implied pack (box / packs)
$110
EV per pack
$70.21
$281 / box
Return opening box
−36%
Return buying packs at listing
−36%
Standalone packs list at $110 vs $110 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $70.21/pack (−36% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$208
Pull any copy
1 in 11 (9.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$3,080
Boxes for 95% chance
30
Cost at 95%
$13,200
You'd spend about $3,080 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Imperial Seal, vs $208 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.