Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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AFR·Released Jul 23, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$410
$34.17/pack
Expected value
$149
$12.41/pack
Net EV
−$261
Break-even
0.1%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −64%

Old Gnawbone

$102 · 1 in 4 · 26% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$90.85
$138
$149
$222
$410
Floor (10%)
$90.85
Typical
$138
Average (EV)
$149
Lucky (90%)
$222
Box price
$410

The average box ($149) is $11.32 above a typical box ($138) — 8%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $410
EV $149
Median $138
$0$110$220$330$440$550$660

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms collector boosterbox TCG low $410, expected value $149, median box $138, 0% break-even, −64% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Adventures in the Forgotten Realms collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Adventures in the Forgotten Realms collector booster box is $149 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $138.
What are the odds of breaking even on Adventures in the Forgotten Realms collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Adventures in the Forgotten Realms collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($410). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Adventures in the Forgotten Realms sealed?
Money pit. EV is $149 vs sealed $410 (−64% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$6.50 (4.6%) · Box +$122 (42.4%) over 3m · ROI −13.1%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$410
Standalone pack listing
—
Implied pack (box / packs)
$34.17
EV per pack
$12.41
$149 / box
Return opening box
−64%
Return buying packs at listing
—

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$102
Pull any copy
1 in 4 (25.8% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
2
Cost of those boxes
$820
Boxes for 95% chance
9
Cost at 95%
$3,690

You'd spend about $820 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Old Gnawbone, vs $102 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard96.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase46.63 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art30.38 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless6.99 cards99.9%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference