Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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BLB·Released Aug 2, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Bloomburrow collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$1,200
$100.00/pack
Expected value
$363
$30.29/pack
Net EV
−$837
Break-even
1.9%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −70%

Ms. Bumbleflower

$1,266 · 1 in 75 · 1% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$177
$288
$363
$649
$1,200
Floor (10%)
$177
Typical
$288
Average (EV)
$363
Lucky (90%)
$649
Box price
$1,200

The average box ($363) is $75.02 above a typical box ($288) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

98%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

2%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $1,200
EV $363
Median $288
$0$333$667$1,000$1,333$1,667$2,000

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Bloomburrow collector boosterbox TCG low $1,200, expected value $363, median box $288, 2% break-even, −70% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Bloomburrow collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Bloomburrow collector booster box is $363 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $288.
What are the odds of breaking even on Bloomburrow collector boosters?
About 2% of simulated Bloomburrow collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,200). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Bloomburrow sealed?
Money pit. EV is $363 vs sealed $1,200 (−70% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$38.85 (12.0%) · Box +$400 (50.0%) over 3m · ROI −10.3%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$1,200
Standalone pack listing
$130
Implied pack (box / packs)
$100.00
EV per pack
$30.29
$363 / box
Return opening box
−70%
Return buying packs at listing
−77%

The box is the better deal per pack ($100.00 vs $130 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −70% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$74.61
Pull any copy
1 in 5 (20.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
3
Cost of those boxes
$3,600
Boxes for 95% chance
12
Cost at 95%
$14,400

You'd spend about $3,600 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Chatterfang, Squirrel General, vs $74.61 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard132.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase17.83 cards100.0%1 in 2
Extended art16.50 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless13.23 cards100.0%1 in 2
Raised foil0.442 cards35.7%1 in 3

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference