Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($135) is $37.81 above a typical box ($97.17) — 28%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
6%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Aetherdrift collector boosterbox TCG low $300, expected value $135, median box $97.17, 6% break-even, −55% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$11.69 (-8.0%) · Box +$74.59 (33.1%) over 3m · ROI −20.1%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $21.99 vs $25.00 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $11.25/pack (−49% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $8,700 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Aetherspark, vs $1,033 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 52.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.80 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 1.08 cards | 66.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Fracture foil | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Serialized | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference