FDN·Released Nov 15, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Foundations collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$193
$320
$373
$595
$945
Floor (10%)
$193
Typical
$320
Average (EV)
$373
Lucky (90%)
$595
Box price
$945
The average box ($373) is $53.12 above a typical box ($320) — 14%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $945
EV $373
Median $320
$0$258$517$775$1,033$1,292$1,550
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Foundations collector boosterbox TCG low $945, expected value $373, median box $320, 2% break-even, −61% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Foundations collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Foundations collector booster box is $373 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $320.
What are the odds of breaking even on Foundations collector boosters?
About 2% of simulated Foundations collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($945). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Foundations sealed?
Money pit. EV is $373 vs sealed $945 (−61% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$32.76 (9.6%) · Box +$270 (40.0%) over 3m · ROI −10.9%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$945
Standalone pack listing
$89.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$78.75
EV per pack
$31.06
$373 / box
Return opening box
−61%
Return buying packs at listing
−65%
The box is the better deal per pack ($78.75 vs $89.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −61% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$247
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$6,615
Boxes for 95% chance
27
Cost at 95%
$25,514
You'd spend about $6,615 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Doubling Season, vs $247 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.