Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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KHM·Released Feb 5, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Kaldheim collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$336
$28.00/pack
Expected value
$180
$14.99/pack
Net EV
−$156
Break-even
0.7%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −46%

Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider

$73.09 · 1 in 7 · 15% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$116
$175
$180
$251
$336
Floor (10%)
$116
Typical
$175
Average (EV)
$180
Lucky (90%)
$251
Box price
$336

The average box ($180) is $5.26 above a typical box ($175) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

99%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

1%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $336
EV $180
Median $175
$0$90$180$270$360$450$540

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Kaldheim collector boosterbox TCG low $336, expected value $180, median box $175, 1% break-even, −46% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Kaldheim collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Kaldheim collector booster box is $180 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $175.
What are the odds of breaking even on Kaldheim collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated Kaldheim collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($336). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Kaldheim sealed?
Money pit. EV is $180 vs sealed $336 (−46% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$5.70 (3.3%) · Box +$40.97 (13.9%) over 3m · ROI −5.5%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$336
Standalone pack listing
—
Implied pack (box / packs)
$28.00
EV per pack
$14.99
$180 / box
Return opening box
−46%
Return buying packs at listing
—

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$52.50
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (47.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$336
Boxes for 95% chance
3
Cost at 95%
$1,008

You'd spend about $336 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty, vs $52.50 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard120.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase35.52 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art19.13 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless5.35 cards99.5%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference