LCI·Released Nov 17, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$232
$327
$387
$568
$993
Floor (10%)
$232
Typical
$327
Average (EV)
$387
Lucky (90%)
$568
Box price
$993
The average box ($387) is $60.02 above a typical box ($327) — 15%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $993
EV $387
Median $327
$0$267$533$800$1,067$1,333$1,600
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosterbox TCG low $993, expected value $387, median box $327, 2% break-even, −61% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box is $387 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $327.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosters?
About 2% of simulated The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($993). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lost Caverns of Ixalan sealed?
Money pit. EV is $387 vs sealed $993 (−61% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$39.61 (11.4%) · Box +$193 (24.1%) over 3m · ROI −4.5%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$993
Standalone pack listing
$93.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$82.73
EV per pack
$32.29
$387 / box
Return opening box
−61%
Return buying packs at listing
−66%
The box is the better deal per pack ($82.73 vs $93.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −61% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$39.25
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (95.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$993
Boxes for 95% chance
1
Cost at 95%
$993
You'd spend about $993 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Pantlaza, Sun-Favored, vs $39.25 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.