Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

Videos · Portfolio · Pull rates · Methodology · Compare sets · llms.txt · Why we don't crack · for educational purposes

WWhy we don't crack
VideosPortfolioPull ratesCompareMarketMethodology
  1. Home
  2. /Core Set 2021
M21·Released Jul 3, 2020·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Core Set 2021 collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...

Set snapshot

Box price
$649
$54.08/pack
Expected value
$187
$15.55/pack
Net EV
−$462
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −71%

Terror of the Peaks

$82.99 · 1 in 6 · 18% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$128
$181
$187
$251
$649
Floor (10%)
$128
Typical
$181
Average (EV)
$187
Lucky (90%)
$251
Box price
$649

The average box ($187) is $5.93 above a typical box ($181) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $649
EV $187
Median $181
$0$175$350$525$700$875$1,050

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Core Set 2021 collector boosterbox TCG low $649, expected value $187, median box $181, 0% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Core Set 2021 collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Core Set 2021 collector booster box is $187 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $181.
What are the odds of breaking even on Core Set 2021 collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Core Set 2021 collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($649). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Core Set 2021 sealed?
Money pit. EV is $187 vs sealed $649 (−71% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$1.51 (0.8%) · Box +$319 (96.7%) over 3m · ROI −27.3%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$649
Standalone pack listing
$52.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$54.08
EV per pack
$15.55
$187 / box
Return opening box
−71%
Return buying packs at listing
−70%

Standalone packs list at $52.00 vs $54.08 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $15.55/pack (−70% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$27.88
Pull any copy
1 in 3 (37.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
2
Cost of those boxes
$1,298
Boxes for 95% chance
5
Cost at 95%
$3,245

You'd spend about $1,298 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, vs $27.88 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard89.13 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase64.49 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art18.87 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless7.51 cards99.9%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference