Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($249) is $32.26 above a typical box ($217) — 13%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Phyrexia: All Will Be One collector boosterbox TCG low $1,245, expected value $249, median box $217, 0% break-even, −80% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$32.07 (14.8%) · Box +$450 (56.5%) over 3m · ROI −7.3%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($104 vs $106 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −80% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $3,734 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, vs $177 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 96.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 38.86 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 29.77 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Compleat | 11.77 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 2.27 cards | 89.7% | 1 in 2 |
| Concept art | 1.33 cards | 73.4% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference