Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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TDM·Released Apr 11, 2025·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector booster EV

Verdict
Bad bet
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Set snapshot

Box price
$477
$39.72/pack
Expected value
$318
$26.54/pack
Net EV
−$158
Break-even
15.1%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −33%

Mox Jasper

$1,666 · 1 in 42 · 2% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$128
$231
$318
$477
$567
Floor (10%)
$128
Typical
$231
Average (EV)
$318
Lucky (90%)
$567
Box price
$477

The average box ($318) is $87.14 above a typical box ($231) — 27%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

86%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

14%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $477
EV $318
Median $231
$0$129$258$388$517$646$775

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector boosterbox TCG low $477, expected value $318, median box $231, 15% break-even, −33% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector booster box is $318 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $231.
What are the odds of breaking even on Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector boosters?
About 15% of simulated Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($477). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Tarkir: Dragonstorm sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $318 vs sealed $477 (−33% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$33.45 (11.7%) · Box +$76.61 (19.2%) over 3m · ROI −4.4%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$477
Standalone pack listing
$39.95
Implied pack (box / packs)
$39.72
EV per pack
$26.54
$318 / box
Return opening box
−33%
Return buying packs at listing
−34%

The box is the better deal per pack ($39.72 vs $39.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −33% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$1,666
Pull any copy
1 in 42 (2.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
29
Cost of those boxes
$13,821
Boxes for 95% chance
124
Cost at 95%
$59,098

You'd spend about $13,821 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mox Jasper, vs $1,666 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard108.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase49.09 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless12.12 cards100.0%1 in 2
Extended art10.67 cards100.0%1 in 2
Halo foil0.120 cards11.3%1 in 9
Serialized0.024 cards2.4%1 in 42

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference