Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($196) is $35.54 above a typical box ($161) — 18%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles collector boosterbox TCG low $436, expected value $196, median box $161, 2% break-even, −55% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$41.04 (-17.3%) · Box +$26.28 (6.4%) over 3m · ROI −12.9%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($36.36 vs $40.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −55% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $436 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Doubling Season, vs $22.95 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 107.38 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 25.40 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Surge foil | 17.82 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 16.63 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 12.65 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Fracture foil | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Headliner | 0.0060 cards | 0.6% | 1 in 170 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference