Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

Videos · Portfolio · Pull rates · Methodology · Compare sets · llms.txt · Why we don't crack · for educational purposes

WWhy we don't crack
VideosPortfolioPull ratesCompareMarketMethodology
  1. Home
  2. /Assassin's Creed
ACR·Released Jul 5, 2024·12 packs / box · 11 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Assassin's Creed collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...

Set snapshot

Box price
$600
$50.00/pack
Expected value
$296
$24.65/pack
Net EV
−$304
Break-even
9.2%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −51%

Leonardo da Vinci

$894 · 1 in 42 · 2% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$164
$226
$296
$357
$600
Floor (10%)
$164
Typical
$226
Average (EV)
$296
Lucky (90%)
$357
Box price
$600

The average box ($296) is $70.21 above a typical box ($226) — 24%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

91%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

9%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $600
EV $296
Median $226
$0$167$333$500$667$833$1,000

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Assassin's Creed collector boosterbox TCG low $600, expected value $296, median box $226, 9% break-even, −51% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Assassin's Creed collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Assassin's Creed collector booster box is $296 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $226.
What are the odds of breaking even on Assassin's Creed collector boosters?
About 9% of simulated Assassin's Creed collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($600). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Assassin's Creed sealed?
Money pit. EV is $296 vs sealed $600 (−51% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$18.88 (6.8%) · Box +$235 (64.4%) over 3m · ROI −26.6%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$600
Standalone pack listing
$44.95
Implied pack (box / packs)
$50.00
EV per pack
$24.65
$296 / box
Return opening box
−51%
Return buying packs at listing
−45%

Standalone packs list at $44.95 vs $50.00 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $24.65/pack (−45% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$22.49
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (64.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$600
Boxes for 95% chance
1
Cost at 95%
$600

You'd spend about $600 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Black Market Connections, vs $22.49 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard82.37 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase16.92 cards100.0%1 in 2
Extended art16.92 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless3.42 cards96.7%1 in 2
Textured0.373 cards31.1%1 in 3
Serialized0.096 cards9.2%1 in 11

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference