CMM·Released Aug 4, 2023·4 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Commander Masters collector booster EV
Verdict
Bad bet
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$171
$277
$296
$440
$470
Floor (10%)
$171
Typical
$277
Average (EV)
$296
Lucky (90%)
$440
Box price
$470
The average box ($296) is $18.98 above a typical box ($277) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
93%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
7%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $470
EV $296
Median $277
$0$129$258$388$517$646$775
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Commander Masters collector boosterbox TCG low $470, expected value $296, median box $277, 7% break-even, −37% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Commander Masters collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Commander Masters collector booster box is $296 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $277.
What are the odds of breaking even on Commander Masters collector boosters?
About 7% of simulated Commander Masters collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($470). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Commander Masters sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $296 vs sealed $470 (−37% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$24.80 (9.2%) · Box +$94.99 (25.3%) over 3m · ROI −9.3%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$470
Standalone pack listing
$125
Implied pack (box / packs)
$117
EV per pack
$73.92
$296 / box
Return opening box
−37%
Return buying packs at listing
−41%
The box is the better deal per pack ($117 vs $125 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −37% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$178
Pull any copy
1 in 6 (16.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
4
Cost of those boxes
$1,880
Boxes for 95% chance
15
Cost at 95%
$7,050
You'd spend about $1,880 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Deflecting Swat, vs $178 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.