FIN·Released Jun 13, 2025·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Final Fantasy collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$365
$647
$810
$1,384
$1,740
Floor (10%)
$365
Typical
$647
Average (EV)
$810
Lucky (90%)
$1,384
Box price
$1,740
The average box ($810) is $163 above a typical box ($647) — 20%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
95%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
5%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $1,740
EV $810
Median $647
$0$467$933$1,400$1,867$2,333$2,800
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Final Fantasy collector boosterbox TCG low $1,740, expected value $810, median box $647, 6% break-even, −53% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Final Fantasy collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Final Fantasy collector booster box is $810 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $647.
What are the odds of breaking even on Final Fantasy collector boosters?
About 6% of simulated Final Fantasy collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,740). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Final Fantasy sealed?
Money pit. EV is $810 vs sealed $1,740 (−53% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$175 (27.6%) · Box +$568 (48.4%) over 3m · ROI −7.6%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$1,740
Standalone pack listing
$159
Implied pack (box / packs)
$145
EV per pack
$67.53
$810 / box
Return opening box
−53%
Return buying packs at listing
−58%
The box is the better deal per pack ($145 vs $159 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −53% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$5,950
Pull any copy
1 in 140 (0.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
96
Cost of those boxes
$166,998
Boxes for 95% chance
415
Cost at 95%
$721,917
You'd spend about $166,998 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Traveling Chocobo, vs $5,950 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.