LTR-SE·Released Jun 23, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$1,007
$1,501
$1,663
$2,468
$6,800
Floor (10%)
$1,007
Typical
$1,501
Average (EV)
$1,663
Lucky (90%)
$2,468
Box price
$6,800
The average box ($1,663) is $162 above a typical box ($1,501) — 10%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $6,800
EV $1,663
Median $1,501
$0$1,833$3,667$5,500$7,333$9,167$11,000
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boosterbox TCG low $6,800, expected value $1,663, median box $1,501, 0% break-even, −76% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector booster box is $1,663 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $1,501.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($6,800). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition) sealed?
Money pit. EV is $1,663 vs sealed $6,800 (−76% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$495 (42.4%) · Box +$3,810 (127.4%) over 3m · ROI −14.6%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$6,800
Standalone pack listing
$600
Implied pack (box / packs)
$567
EV per pack
$139
$1,663 / box
Return opening box
−76%
Return buying packs at listing
−77%
The box is the better deal per pack ($567 vs $600 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −76% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,577
Pull any copy
1 in 8 (12.5% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
5
Cost of those boxes
$34,000
Boxes for 95% chance
21
Cost at 95%
$142,800
You'd spend about $34,000 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The One Ring, vs $1,577 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.