Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$128
$198
$302
$490
$1,009
Floor (10%)
$128
Typical
$198
Average (EV)
$302
Lucky (90%)
$490
Box price
$1,009
The average box ($302) is $104 above a typical box ($198) — 35%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
95%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
5%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $1,009
EV $302
Median $198
$0$275$550$825$1,100$1,375$1,650
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
March of the Machine collector boosterbox TCG low $1,009, expected value $302, median box $198, 6% break-even, −70% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a March of the Machine collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a March of the Machine collector booster box is $302 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $198.
What are the odds of breaking even on March of the Machine collector boosters?
About 6% of simulated March of the Machine collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,009). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold March of the Machine sealed?
Money pit. EV is $302 vs sealed $1,009 (−70% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$3.10 (1.0%) · Box +$376 (59.4%) over 3m · ROI −17.3%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$1,009
Standalone pack listing
$99.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$84.08
EV per pack
$25.17
$302 / box
Return opening box
−70%
Return buying packs at listing
−75%
The box is the better deal per pack ($84.08 vs $99.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −70% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,976
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$58,522
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$251,241
You'd spend about $58,522 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings, vs $1,976 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.