MSH·Released Jun 26, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Marvel Super Heroes collector booster EV
Verdict
Roughly break-even
Loading opener...
What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$214
$328
$361
$445
$501
Floor (10%)
$214
Typical
$328
Average (EV)
$361
Lucky (90%)
$501
Box price
$445
The average box ($361) is $33.65 above a typical box ($328) — 9%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
84%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
16%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $445
EV $361
Median $328
$0$121$242$363$483$604$725
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Marvel Super Heroes collector boosterbox TCG low $445, expected value $361, median box $328, 17% break-even, −19% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box is $361 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $328.
What are the odds of breaking even on Marvel Super Heroes collector boosters?
About 17% of simulated Marvel Super Heroes collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($445). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Marvel Super Heroes sealed?
Roughly break-even. EV is $361 vs sealed $445 (−19% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$35.89 (-9.0%) · Box −$25.01 (-5.3%) over 3m · ROI −3.3%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$445
Standalone pack listing
$39.95
Implied pack (box / packs)
$37.08
EV per pack
$30.10
$361 / box
Return opening box
−19%
Return buying packs at listing
−25%
The box is the better deal per pack ($37.08 vs $39.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −19% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,633
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$25,809
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$110,803
You'd spend about $25,809 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Mind Stone, vs $1,633 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.