Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($247) is $15.10 above a typical box ($231) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty collector boosterbox TCG low $599, expected value $247, median box $231, 1% break-even, −59% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$10.28 (4.4%) · Box +$142 (31.1%) over 3m · ROI −10.5%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $48.00 vs $49.92 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $20.54/pack (−57% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,198 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Boseiju, Who Endures, vs $63.00 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 84.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 63.89 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 27.83 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 4.20 cards | 98.5% | 1 in 2 |
| Neon ink | 0.081 cards | 7.7% | 1 in 13 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference