Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($217) is $14.37 above a typical box ($202) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Outlaws of Thunder Junction collector boosterbox TCG low $453, expected value $217, median box $202, 2% break-even, −52% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$16.62 (8.3%) · Box +$88.00 (24.1%) over 3m · ROI −7.0%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($37.75 vs $40.04 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −52% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,812 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mana Drain, vs $60.62 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 43.86 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 25.62 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 2.37 cards | 90.6% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.116 cards | 10.9% | 1 in 9 |
| Raised foil | 0.039 cards | 3.8% | 1 in 26 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference