Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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THB·Released Jan 24, 2020·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Theros Beyond Death collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$410
$34.16/pack
Expected value
$166
$13.86/pack
Net EV
−$244
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −59%

Shadowspear

$84.62 · 1 in 4 · 26% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$106
$159
$166
$231
$410
Floor (10%)
$106
Typical
$159
Average (EV)
$166
Lucky (90%)
$231
Box price
$410

The average box ($166) is $6.91 above a typical box ($159) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $410
EV $166
Median $159
$0$110$220$330$440$550$660

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Theros Beyond Death collector boosterbox TCG low $410, expected value $166, median box $159, 0% break-even, −59% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Theros Beyond Death collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Theros Beyond Death collector booster box is $166 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $159.
What are the odds of breaking even on Theros Beyond Death collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Theros Beyond Death collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($410). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Theros Beyond Death sealed?
Money pit. EV is $166 vs sealed $410 (−59% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$20.95 (14.4%) · Box +$115 (39.0%) over 3m · ROI −8.7%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$410
Standalone pack listing
$29.49
Implied pack (box / packs)
$34.16
EV per pack
$13.86
$166 / box
Return opening box
−59%
Return buying packs at listing
−53%

Standalone packs list at $29.49 vs $34.16 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $13.86/pack (−53% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$84.62
Pull any copy
1 in 4 (26.0% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
2
Cost of those boxes
$820
Boxes for 95% chance
9
Cost at 95%
$3,690

You'd spend about $820 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Shadowspear, vs $84.62 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard152.20 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art15.49 cards100.0%1 in 2
Showcase10.96 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless1.34 cards73.9%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference