Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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  2. /Innistrad: Crimson Vow
VOW·Released Nov 19, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$305
$25.42/pack
Expected value
$79.93
$6.66/pack
Net EV
−$225
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −74%

Sorin the Mirthless

$18.20 · 1 in 6 · 16% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$58.52
$78.42
$79.93
$103
$305
Floor (10%)
$58.52
Typical
$78.42
Average (EV)
$79.93
Lucky (90%)
$103
Box price
$305

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $305
EV $79.93
Median $78.42
$0$83$167$250$333$417$500

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boosterbox TCG low $305, expected value $79.93, median box $78.42, 0% break-even, −74% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster box is $79.93 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $78.42.
What are the odds of breaking even on Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($305). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Innistrad: Crimson Vow sealed?
Money pit. EV is $79.93 vs sealed $305 (−74% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$0.27 (0.3%) · Box +$87.00 (39.9%) over 3m · ROI −10.3%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$305
Standalone pack listing
$2,000
Implied pack (box / packs)
$25.42
EV per pack
$6.66
$79.93 / box
Return opening box
−74%
Return buying packs at listing
−100%

The box is the better deal per pack ($25.42 vs $2,000 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −74% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$11.64
Pull any copy
1 in 3 (29.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
2
Cost of those boxes
$610
Boxes for 95% chance
8
Cost at 95%
$2,440

You'd spend about $610 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Shattered Sanctum, vs $11.64 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard84.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase47.93 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art30.49 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless17.58 cards100.0%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference