The house usually wins
What's a collector booster box really worth when you crack it?
Pick any Magic: The Gathering set. We simulate opening its collector boosters using Wizards' published collation, price every card at live TCGplayer rates, and show the expected value, the odds of breaking even, and exactly how the math favors keeping it sealed.
Sets analyzed
46
established collector sets
Boxes that lose money to crack
46
of 46
Average return when cracked
−53%
Worst offender
ONE
−80%
Crack-it-open leaderboard
Return · worst first#Verdict
1Phyrexia: All Will Be OneONE · 2023$1,245$249−80%Money pit2The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition)LTR-SE · 2023$6,800$1,663−76%Money pit3Innistrad: Crimson VowVOW · 2021$305$79.93−74%Money pit4The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earthLTR · 2023$2,094$588−72%Money pit5Throne of EldraineELD · 2019$433$124−71%Money pit6Innistrad: Midnight HuntMID · 2021$250$71.69−71%Money pit7Core Set 2021M21 · 2020$649$187−71%Money pit8March of the MachineMOM · 2023$1,009$302−70%Money pit9BloomburrowBLB · 2024$1,200$363−70%Money pit10Duskmourn: House of HorrorDSK · 2024$742$236−68%Money pit11The Brothers' WarBRO · 2022$800$273−66%Money pit12Ravnica RemasteredRVR · 2024$1,345$478−64%Money pit13Adventures in the Forgotten RealmsAFR · 2021$410$149−64%Money pit14Wilds of EldraineWOE · 2023$885$335−62%Money pit15The Lost Caverns of IxalanLCI · 2023$993$387−61%Money pit16FoundationsFDN · 2024$945$373−61%Money pit17Theros Beyond DeathTHB · 2020$410$166−59%Money pit18Kamigawa: Neon DynastyNEO · 2022$599$247−59%Money pit19Streets of New CapennaSNC · 2022$299$129−57%Money pit20Dominaria UnitedDMU · 2022$360$161−55%Money pit21AetherdriftDFT · 2025$300$135−55%Money pit22Teenage Mutant Ninja TurtlesTMT · 2026$436$196−55%Money pit23Commander LegendsCMR · 2020$793$363−54%Money pit24Zendikar RisingZNR · 2020$480$222−54%Money pit25Final FantasyFIN · 2025$1,740$810−53%Money pit26Edge of EternitiesEOE · 2025$700$331−53%Money pit27Outlaws of Thunder JunctionOTJ · 2024$453$217−52%Money pit28Secrets of StrixhavenSOS · 2026$482$234−51%Money pit29Assassin's CreedACR · 2024$600$296−51%Money pit30Innistrad RemasteredINR · 2025$475$242−49%Money pit31March of the Machine: The AftermathMAT · 2023$280$143−49%Money pit32Marvel's Spider-ManSPM · 2025$399$205−49%Money pit33KaldheimKHM · 2021$336$180−46%Money pit34Lorwyn EclipsedECL · 2026$429$230−46%Money pit35Dominaria RemasteredDMR · 2023$545$312−43%Money pit36Ikoria: Lair of BehemothsIKO · 2020$640$378−41%Money pit37Strixhaven: School of MagesSTX · 2021$629$379−40%Bad bet38Avatar: The Last AirbenderTLA · 2025$495$299−40%Bad bet39Commander MastersCMM · 2023$470$296−37%Bad bet40Double Masters 20222X2 · 2022$440$281−36%Bad bet41Murders at Karlov ManorMKM · 2024$383$246−36%Bad bet42Tarkir: DragonstormTDM · 2025$477$318−33%Bad bet43Modern Horizons 3MH3 · 2024$835$590−29%Bad bet44Modern Horizons 2MH2 · 2021$592$423−29%Bad bet45Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's GateCLB · 2022$596$431−28%Bad bet46Marvel Super HeroesMSH · 2026$445$361−19%Break-even-ish“EV cracked” is the expected total card value from opening every pack in the box, with each card valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket). “Return” compares that to the current sealed box price (TCG low). Click any set for a full breakdown and a live pack simulator.
Biggest losers if you crack
Expected loss per box (sealed price minus cracked EV). These are the sets where keeping it sealed hurts the least compared to opening.
| Set | Box | EV cracked | Expected loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition)LTR-SE | $6,800 | $1,663 | $5,137 |
| 2The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earthLTR | $2,094 | $588 | $1,506 |
| 3Phyrexia: All Will Be OneONE | $1,245 | $249 | $996 |
| 4Final FantasyFIN | $1,740 | $810 | $929 |
| 5Ravnica RemasteredRVR | $1,345 | $478 | $867 |
| 6BloomburrowBLB | $1,200 | $363 | $837 |
| 7March of the MachineMOM | $1,009 | $302 | $707 |
| 8The Lost Caverns of IxalanLCI | $993 | $387 | $605 |